What are the best strategies for betting on the NFL? What are some tips to make you a better NFL handicapper? How can you win more wagering betting on the NFL? All of those questions are what J.J. Apricena, lead sports betting contributor for the SharpSide YouTube channel, addresses in his Sports Betting 101 video covering NFL betting.
Whether it’s tips, tricks, or strategies to become a better NFL handicapper, Apricena has you covered with this video.
Setting Yourself Up with a Yearly Goal
You’ve heard the phrase “keep it simple, stupid.” Here we’re going to talk about how to “keep it realistic.” Set a realistic betting goal for the NFL season. Apricena suggest to keep things to the regular season and to work toward a goal of winning 20 units.
Before you go thinking that 20 units isn’t enough, you should hear out the example that Apricena runs through because it gives you a good idea of what realistic means.
There are 256 games to bet on during the NFL regular season. Let’s say you bet on half of those, so you’ve got action on 128 games. If your goal is to hit 60%, that’s 77 wins and 51 losses against the spread (ATS). If you’re betting in units of $1,000, you’re going to win $77,000 and lose $56,100 (betting $1,100 to win one $1,000 units). That’s a difference of $20,900, so nearly 21 units won on the season. That’s a really good result and something to be proud of. Don’t believe people when they tell you that 60% isn’t a high enough win rate or winning 20 units in a season is too low. Remember, keep it realistic.
Whether it’s tips, tricks, or strategies to become a better NFL handicapper, Apricena has you covered with this video.
Setting Yourself Up with a Yearly Goal
You’ve heard the phrase “keep it simple, stupid.” Here we’re going to talk about how to “keep it realistic.” Set a realistic betting goal for the NFL season. Apricena suggest to keep things to the regular season and to work toward a goal of winning 20 units.
Before you go thinking that 20 units isn’t enough, you should hear out the example that Apricena runs through because it gives you a good idea of what realistic means.
There are 256 games to bet on during the NFL regular season. Let’s say you bet on half of those, so you’ve got action on 128 games. If your goal is to hit 60%, that’s 77 wins and 51 losses against the spread (ATS). If you’re betting in units of $1,000, you’re going to win $77,000 and lose $56,100 (betting $1,100 to win one $1,000 units). That’s a difference of $20,900, so nearly 21 units won on the season. That’s a really good result and something to be proud of. Don’t believe people when they tell you that 60% isn’t a high enough win rate or winning 20 units in a season is too low. Remember, keep it realistic.
Be Comfortable with Your NFL Betting
For Apricena, his NFL-betting comfort zone means betting five games each week. That’s what he suggests for you. Although one can certainly tailor a comfort level to his own individual needs and wants, but Apricena stresses that you should not bet more than five games per week.
Apricena finds what he believes to be the best five edges on the weekly slate and bets on those games. Four of the games, Apricena bets one unit on each. For the fifth game, he bets two units. That means Apricena is betting six units per week over the course of 17 weeks for a total of 102 units wagered. Apricena says that his goal is to go 60% on the single-unit plays and 65% on the double-unit plays, putting more emphasis on games that have two units bet on them.
Overall, between setting yourself up with a yearly goal and correctly assessing your comfort level, it’s important to have a plan when betting an NFL season and to stick to that plan. Think big picture and don’t live week to week.
Use Two-Sided Lines When Handicapping the NFL
According to Apricena, it’s important to set a line for both sides of a game. He goes over some examples of how to do this and ultimately tells us that if we’re not using the logic of developing two-sides lines then we are selling ourselves short when it comes to handicapping. You should be able to come up with enough adequate reasons to bet the opposite side of a game. If you can’t, then just avoid the game altogether.
Use the Media To Your Advantage
We see it time and time again. The media hypes one team and dumps on another, and those narratives, the headlines, drive public sentiment. This is information that you can and should use to your advantage.
One good example of how hype can be driven by media is through HBO’s ‘Hard Knocks’ series. Every season that ‘Hard Knocks’ is produced, the team that is featured gets a lot of extra love. It’s the show’s goal to be exciting and entertaining and get your amped up for football season. That’s media-driven hype that is supposed to make you feel better about a team than you should. Recognize situations like these and act accordingly.
Using the media to your advantage when betting sports is heightened exponentially when betting on the NFL. The NFL is the league that gets the most coverage, by far, so there is a greater volume of media driving positive or negative storylines. The NFL has a rather short season in terms of volumes of games, so it can be very volatile. Don’t add to this volatility by perceiving things irrationally.
Read Full Article Here: Sports Betting 101: Best Tips, Tricks, and Strategies for NFL Betting
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